Weekly Market Review (15 October 2018) - What happened & What's next?
- JCI ended 0.43%WoW higher to 5,756.5 last week despite net foreign outflow of USD273mn and outperforming other regional market (Dow Jones was -4.2%WoW after tech sell-off and lingering trade wars concerns). Oil price came off from its high, closing at USD80.4/bbl (-4.4%WoW) following the rise in UST 2yr as well as lower demand outlook from IEA (International Energy Agency). Consumer was the most performing sector, gaining 2.02%WoW; meanwhile, mining was the most underperforming one (-2.39%WoW) due to weakness in oil price (-4%WoW). This week, market awaits for Retail Sales and Industrial Production data from China and US, China 3Q GDP, and US FOMC Minutes Meeting.
- IDR was relatively flat (0.09% depreciated) to Rp15,197/USD and outperforming other emerging currencies. Meanwhile, Dollar index was 0.42%WoW decline.
- Ahead of trade balance data, Indonesia bond market yield continued to increase by 27-40 bps. 10 years series increased the most by 40 bps from 8.27% to 8.67%.
- Foreign investor continued to increase position on Indo GB by Rp 0.25tn. Selling pressure came from domestic investor especially on 5 and 10 years benchmark series.
- 10 year US Treasury yield decreased from 3.23% to 3.15%. This driven by US consumer price data that rose less than expected in September, at 0.1% below consensus of 0.2%
- US CPI in Sept-18 came in slightly below expectation at 0.1%MoM and 2.3%YoY vs 0.2%MoM and 2.4%YoY market estimate.
- China Caixin PMI Composite was 52.1 in Sept-18, flat from prior month number at 52.
- China recorded trade balance surplus of USD31.7bn in Sept-18 and was above consensus estimate at USD19.2bn.
- Indonesia recorded USD227mn of trade balance surplus in Sept-18 and came in better than consensus expectation which forecasted about USD500mn deficit. The surplus came in due to various tightening measures implemented by the government and central bank which brought import 13.8%MoM decline vs 6.6%MoM decline in exports.
- Cement industry booked +8%YoY sales volume growth in Sept-18 with Sumatera and Kalimantan recorded the highest growth at 9%YoY.
- Indonesia 4W wholesale volume increased by 6.3%YoY and brought 9M18 4W wholesale volume growth at 6.8%YoY.
Foreign net purchases of Indonesia equities