We see window opportunity for the market to do well in 2020, both driven by external and internal factors. On external, latest leading indicators showed activities may already stabilize and/or gradual pick-up. Hence, modest global economy recovery seems likely to happen, driven by easing trade tension and monetary policy. Our base case is stable trade tension and/or ceasefire, as US enter election year to reduce volatility/uncertainty.
Risk: trade tension, late cycle economy, high debt level, US election/geopolitics.