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Market Outlook

US-China Trade Deal: It Takes Two To Tango

Recent US-China trade talks had ended without any deal amid rising market expectation. At the same time, US$200bn of US imports from China is taxed at 25% now, up from 10% previously.

What do we see in 2019 ?

Our base case is the external headwinds (i.e. oil price, USD, UST yield, concern on Emerging Market, trade tension, etc) to ease/moderate going into 2019. Hence, this should bode well for Emerging Market, including Indonesia, amid slower global growth and less accommodative monetary policy. Meanwhile, domestic growth continues to be…

Market Beat December 2019

The psyche of late cycle trading will be appropriate for handling USD rates in 2019. The Fed has been embarking on policy normalisation over the past five years and rate hikes will probably conclude sometime this year. To recap, since early 2015, the Fed’s balance sheet has shrunk by close…