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Market Outlook

Market Outlook 2020 - Window of opportunity

We see window opportunity for the market to do well in 2020, both driven by external and internal factors. On external, latest leading indicators showed activities may already stabilize and/or gradual pick-up. Hence, modest global economy recovery seems likely to happen, driven by easing trade tension and monetary policy. Our…

A new hope

During inauguration, President Joko Widodo emphasizes the goal to become develop country and focus on 5 things i.e. human capital, infrastructure, regulation, bureaucracy and economic transformation.

The Deal 1.0

US-China mini-deal is a substantial progress between both sides, which suggest that they are looking for ways to reach an agreement.

Riding the wave

Equity market volatility have increased in 2Q19 with a rebound in June 2019 offsetting the sharp correction in May 2019. The recovery is mainly driven by easing escalation between US & China and expectation on pro-growth policies from Fed, China and ECB.......

What do we see in 2019 ?

Our base case is the external headwinds (i.e. oil price, USD, UST yield, concern on Emerging Market, trade tension, etc) to ease/moderate going into 2019. Hence, this should bode well for Emerging Market, including Indonesia, amid slower global growth and less accommodative monetary policy. Meanwhile, domestic growth continues to be…

Market Beat December 2019

The psyche of late cycle trading will be appropriate for handling USD rates in 2019. The Fed has been embarking on policy normalisation over the past five years and rate hikes will probably conclude sometime this year. To recap, since early 2015, the Fed’s balance sheet has shrunk by close…