Market Outlook 2020 - Window of opportunity
We see window opportunity for the market to do well in 2020, both driven by external and internal factors. On external, latest leading indicators showed activities may already stabilize and/or gradual pick-up. Hence, modest global economy recovery seems likely to happen, driven by easing trade tension and monetary policy. Our base case is stable trade tension and/or ceasefire, as US enter election year to reduce volatility/uncertainty.
Risk: trade tension, late cycle economy, high debt level, US election/geopolitics.